Expert Warns of Imminent US Civil War As Internal Collapse Looms
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – An American professor has predicted a potential second civil war in the United States, warning that the country could fracture within a decade due to deep internal divisions and governmental failure.
Citing Benjamin Cohen, a political economist at the University of California-Santa Barbara, the Daily Mail suggested in a report that California may secede from the US and ignite a civil war within the next ten years.
Cohen noted that political polarization in the US has reached alarming levels, saying the risk of civil conflict is “substantially greater than zero.”
He outlined a hypothetical yet plausible scenario where California declares independence in 2035 in defiance of federal authority, prompting a military response from the White House.
“President (JD) Vance has threatened a military takeover of state government in Sacramento, backed by National Guard troops from nearby red states. Armed conflict looks increasingly possible,” Cohen wrote in a mock news bulletin.
The concept of states seceding is gaining traction among disillusioned citizens who feel alienated by Washington. Cohen emphasized the power of identity politics, noting that “rationalism falls by the wayside” when community allegiance takes over.
A recent YouGov poll reinforced these concerns, showing that 40 percent of Americans believe a civil war is likely within the next decade — one that would pit Democrats against Republicans, not just states against the federal government.
“It’s difficult for me to imagine how things would divide up if there were a civil war,” Cohen said. “But the probability of such a war is substantially greater than zero.”
He described the possibility of secession as an “underappreciated phenomenon,” pointing out that many Americans are ready to reject US federal authority in pursuit of new political borders aligned with their ideologies.
Secession would mean abandoning the US Constitution, federal laws, and institutions — essentially forming a new, independent nation.
However, the US Supreme Court has ruled such moves illegal without unanimous consent from all states, setting the stage for federal crackdowns in any breakaway scenario.
Cohen's warnings align with growing fears among Americans that the US is heading toward authoritarian collapse. The same YouGov poll found that 31 percent believe the US could become a fascist dictatorship by 2035, while another 20 percent expect a communist transformation.
Cohen noted that the US is already fragmenting internally. Even within states, there is stark political disunity — with cities like New York leaning left while surrounding areas support right-wing policies.
In his book Dream States: A Lurking Nightmare for the World Order, Cohen warns that many Americans want to redraw state lines entirely. “In some cases, they’re prepared to fight to redraw those lines,” he said.
California has already seen unrest, with riots erupting in Los Angeles over mass deportations ordered by the federal government.
US President Donald Trump, reacting to the unrest, directly blamed California Governor Gavin Newsom, accusing him of dragging the country into a civil conflict.
“I don’t want a Civil War. Civil War would happen if you left it to people like him,” Trump said on June 9.
He signaled support for Newsom’s arrest and dismissed him as “grossly incompetent.”
A federal appeals court has since granted the White House continued control over National Guard forces deployed in Los Angeles to suppress anti-ICE protests.
The disintegration of American unity, now acknowledged even by its own scholars, reveals a country in severe moral, political, and institutional crisis — a crisis it can no longer conceal or export.
