Poll Shows Trump with Twice Biden’s Support for 2024 among Those Who Didn’t Vote in 2020

The survey, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, asked respondents how they would vote in 2024 if their choices were Biden, Trump, or a third-party or write-in candidate. Among people who didn’t vote in 2020, 14 per cent said they would vote for Biden, while a whopping 34 per cent chose Trump.

The gap is especially stark when compared to the numbers for “all respondents” – including both voters and non-voters. In that general category, Biden and Trump were dead even, with 41 per cent each.

Biden began his presidency with unusually high poll numbers, enjoying a 55 per cent approval rating in late January 2021, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

But his numbers tanked in August, when the US made its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and have not recovered since. On 11 February, FiveThirtyEight’s average showed him with 41.4 per cent of Americans approving of his performance, and 52.5 per cent disapproving.

Meanwhile, Trump has dropped repeated hints that he plans to run for president again in 2024. Redfield & Wilton’s poll showed that if he does so, he will have strong support among Republicans. Among those who voted for Trump last time, 87 per cent said they will vote for him again.

Biden’s support among his own party was also strong, with 82 per cent of people who voted for him in 2020 saying they’d do so again in 2024.

Interestingly, when respondents were offered the choice of Vice President Kamala Harris instead of Biden, the results were mixed. Among all respondents, Harris did a bit worse than Biden, with 40 per cent support. Trump’s support, meanwhile, went up to 43 per cent.

Among those who didn’t vote in 2020, however, Harris did better than Biden. She scored 19 per cent of the non-voters – five per cent more than Biden – while Trump held steady at 34 per cent.